Status is not support. Status tier = the furthest verifiable step taken (campaign-style activity — early-state travel, donors, staffing, or media — with no on-record quote yet). Momentum = weighted recent activity, not popularity. How to read this →
Last reviewed in the July 31, 2026 UTC daily build · latest signal July 24, 2026 (7 days ago).
Latest signal
New Hampshire presidential poll puts Ocasio-Cortez ahead of Buttigieg among 2028 hopefuls - Scripps News source ↗ July 24, 2026 · 7 days ago · Medium confidence
Back on the trail and openly weighing a run; consistently near the top of Democratic primary polls.
Why this momentum score
Momentum · last 30 days
52
▲ 12 vs 30 days ago
Momentum over the last 30 days: from 40 to 52, high 52, low 40.
Soft / "not ruling out" quote
+12
Early-state travel (IA/NH/SC/NV)
+10
Donor meetings / PAC activity
+10
Campaign staffing / consultants
+10
National media blitz
+5
Recency boost (signal 7d ago)
+5
Momentum (capped 0–100)
52
Evidence & status history
2026-07-14
Buttigieg won't rule out 2028 presidential bid as he campaigns in Iowa - The Des Moines Register source ↗
softConsideringearlyState· Low
2026-07-14
Buttigieg won't rule out 2028 presidential bid as he rallies in Iowa - AOL.com source ↗
softConsideringearlyState· Low
2026-07-13
‘Reach across the aisle’: Pete Buttigieg campaigns with Sarah Trone Garriott - Iowa Capital Dispatch source ↗
earlyState· Low
2026-07-15
"Nope!" Pete Buttigieg refuses to rule out 2028 presidential bid - LGBTQ Nation source ↗
softConsidering· Low
2026-07-19
At a Florida fundraiser, Pete Buttigieg stresses the need to ‘restore democracy’ - NBC News source ↗
donors· Low
2026-07-23
AOC, Buttigieg lead Democrats in New Hampshire presidential primary poll - CBS News source ↗
earlyState· Low
2026-07-24
New Hampshire presidential poll puts Ocasio-Cortez ahead of Buttigieg among 2028 hopefuls - Scripps News source ↗
earlyState· Low
2026-07-23
New Hampshire poll puts Ocasio-Cortez ahead of Buttigieg among 2028 Democrats - KXLH News Helena source ↗
earlyState· Low
Early-state activity
Iowa
3 signals
New Hampshire
3 signals
Money movement — FEC, a separate axis
No FEC financial report on file — not a registered filer, or no totals yet. Money is never folded into the momentum score.
Tags
establishmentpolls-highNBC News
Something wrong?
Corrections welcome. If a status, source, or date here is wrong or stale, flag it in 30 seconds → with what's wrong and a link. Confirmed corrections apply on the next daily build.